Three major problems of the hottest rubber market

Three major problems in the rubber market follow closely

although the development of China's rubber industry in the first quarter of this year was still sluggish, the decline narrowed, showing a steady upward trend, and some indicators showed signs of improvement. However, at present, there are still three major problems in the domestic rubber Market: the contrast between spot and futures, the layout of new rubber resources, and the "Crux" in market development. This is the information obtained at the rubber branch of the 6th Shanghai derivatives market forum held by Shanghai Futures Exchange recently

supply and demand: there is a clear contrast between spot and futures

Deng Yali, Secretary General of China Rubber Industry Association, said that according to the association's statistics of 266 key member enterprises in the whole industry, the main economic indicators of the rubber industry fell sharply year-on-year from January to March. Among them, the total industrial output value decreased by 13.61%, the tire output decreased by 16%, the value of export delivery (excluding carbon black) decreased by 21.48%, and the profit decreased by 26.09%. Rubber consumption also shrank significantly, with the total consumption of raw rubber only 610000 tons. From the rubber import situation from January to March, except cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, other synthetic rubber varieties, natural rubber and composite rubber all showed negative growth

in contrast, the natural rubber futures trading in Shanghai Futures Exchange is stable, and the market scale continues to expand. In 2008, the annual turnover of natural rubber on the exchange was 9.28 trillion yuan, and the trading scale has surpassed the Tokyo market, ranking first in the world. In the first four months of this year, a total of 275 million tons of rubber futures were traded in the previous period, with a turnover of 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 328.9% and 152.6% respectively year-on-year. The trading amount accounted for 12.81% of the total trading amount of commodity futures in China. Hedging and delivery remained in the normal range. Tengjiawei, assistant general manager of the last stock exchange, said that China's rubber futures continued to maintain a good momentum of development in the adverse market environment, indicating that many enterprises are strengthening their awareness of using futures functions and avoiding risks, and their participation is improving. For example, Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation group and Hainan Natural Rubber Industry Co., Ltd. tasted the sweetness of futures in the year of crisis

production: it is necessary to control and adjust the product structure

it is understood that at present, the production scale of domestic rubber raw materials continues to expand, and China's new synthetic rubber production capacity is more than 500000 tons this year and next year. The new projects include: the 15000 ton rare earth cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber project put into operation by Dushanzi Petrochemical Company in May this year, the 100000 ton solution polymerized styrene butadiene rubber and 80000 ton SBS project that will be put into operation in September this year; In May this year, Qilu Petrochemical Company added 100000 tons of emulsion polymerized styrene butadiene rubber project; The 50000 ton nitrile rubber project newly built by Lanzhou Petrochemical Company; 30000 ton neoprene project of Shanxi synthetic rubber group; Panjin Zhenao chemical 100000 ton butyl rubber project, etc. In 2010, the planting area of natural rubber in China will reach 14million mu, with an output of 700000 tons. With the natural rubber processed in foreign production bases, the total controllable amount will reach 950000 tons

for the production layout of domestic synthetic rubber in the next few years, Wang Fengju, Secretary General of the material professional committee of China Rubber Industry Association, believes that if the product structure is not reasonably controlled and adjusted, the production capacity of synthetic rubber will exceed 3million tons in 2015, and the production capacity will be seriously surplus. "Some private enterprises often find associations and want to launch the emulsion polymerized styrene butadiene rubber project. We propose that the project has the risk of short-term effects, and also tell them that at present, most of the emulsion polymerized styrene butadiene technology has a very serious impact on the environment, so we should consider it carefully." She particularly stressed that attention should be paid to the rational allocation of resources, and the product varieties should be balanced to meet the needs of high-performance tires for raw materials; We should develop rubber varieties in the auto parts industry with increasing demand, such as hydrogen, and focus on developing rubber raw materials such as high-strength and high toughness aluminum alloy materials, high-strength and heat-resistant aluminum alloy materials, special colored seed materials, new aluminum alloy composites and other chemical nitrile rubber, EPDM rubber and TPE thermoplastic elastomer

with regard to the production of natural rubber, some experts proposed that the planting area of natural rubber should be controlled within 15million mu by 2015, plus the amount processed in foreign production bases, the total amount of resources should be controlled at 1.4 million tons

prospects: both joy and sorrow need to solve the "Crux"

at present, China's rubber market presents many favorable factors. The state has issued a series of economic stimulus policies, such as the automobile revitalization plan, increasing the export tax rebate of tires, and the import tax exemption of composite rubber, which are conducive to the overall development of the industry; The growth of transportation industry, coal, electricity, building materials and machinery industry will drive the development of related rubber products; Optimizing the product structure of large tire groups and accelerating the development of high-performance tires will avoid risks in the future development process; The reasonable growth of domestic synthetic rubber production capacity and output also provides a guarantee for the development of downstream industries. Some experts also expect that China's tire products have been recognized globally, and with the gradual recovery of the global economy, exports will continue to be optimistic

as for the development trend of the rubber market this year, Wang Fengju believes that the domestic rubber demand will still increase in the second half of the year, but the speed may not be as high as in previous years, and the domestic rubber demand will continue to grow steadily from 2010 to 2015

many experts put forward the "Crux" that needs special attention and solution in the development of the rubber industry: first, the impact of international trade protectionism on the Chinese market. For example, the United States and India have carried out special warranty surveys on China's tire exports, and this phenomenon will occur in the future. Domestic raw material enterprises and tire enterprises should jointly deal with it. Second, we should be alert to the challenges posed to China by the market transfer after the global economic recovery. In previous years, the world's tire manufacturing was mainly concentrated in China, but since 2008, some world-famous tire manufacturers have shifted their investment focus to other countries and regions, such as Russia. Russia is a big producer of synthetic rubber, and the cost of producing tires is lower than that of China. Since last year, Russia has implemented zero tariff on natural rubber imports. For China, this is not only a market shift, but also will affect China's tire exports to Russia. Third, since the state has implemented zero tariff on composite rubber, which has brought great pressure on natural rubber production enterprises, experts proposed that China should also reduce the tariff on natural rubber to a reasonable level that adding long carbon fiber reinforced materials can improve the stiffness and strength to a higher value than long glass fiber can achieve

in order to improve the foaming power of the whole industry if the market competition is too high, experts also suggested that domestic raw material production enterprises and downstream enterprises should unite to form strategic partners, adhere to scientific and technological innovation, strengthen the construction of integrity, actively participate in rubber futures, improve the awareness of risk prevention, and promote the establishment of a healthy and harmonious rubber trade market

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